One of the startling result of a new poll by Insight West is that aside from lagging behind, Conservative voters in 2011 are now looking elsewhere following a series of scandals that have rocked the federal Conservative Party.
The change of heart follows closely several high profile cases including robocalls or Conservative voter suppression tactics, election overspending, partisan appointments of Conservative supporters, fraud, bribery, breach of trust and even assault including the Mike Duffy trial where the machinations of the Prime Minister’s Office (PMO) were revealed by former officials.
“One of the big problems for the Conservative Party is the fact that three-in-ten of their own voters from 2011 are already looking elsewhere,” says Mario Canseco, Vice President for Public Affairs, at Insights West.
“In addition, both the approval rating and the momentum score for the Conservative leader are significantly lower than what is observed with his rivals,” he said.
The early days of the 2015 federal election campaign in Canada have not been particularly kind to the ruling Conservative Party, a new Insights West poll has found.
The online survey of a representative provincial sample shows that, if the federal election were held today, 41% of decided voters in British Columbia (+6 since an Insights West poll conducted in early May) would cast a ballot for the New Democratic Party (NDP) in their constituency, followed by the Liberal Party with 24% (-1), the governing Conservative Party with 22% (-7), and the Green Party with 12% (+2).
The lead for the federal New Democrats is consistent across both genders and three age groups. The Conservatives currently get their best numbers among voters aged 55 and over (29%, with the NDP at 41%), while the Liberals do best among voters aged 35-54 (27%, with the NDP at 42%).
In Metro Vancouver, the New Democrats are clearly ahead with 43%, followed by the Liberals with 25% and the Conservatives with 23%. On Vancouver Island, support for the Greens has increased markedly—from 20% in May to 32% in August—placing the party just seven points behind the NDP (39%).
Two-in-five decided voters (42%) say they could change their mind and support another party’s candidate in the federal election. The Conservatives (71%) and the NDP (63%) hold the highest proportion of fully committed voters, while the numbers are lower for the Liberals (49%) and the Greens (33%).
The approval rating for Official Opposition and NDP leader Thomas Mulcair stands at 55% (+3), closely followed by Green Party leader Elizabeth May (52%, +8) and Liberal Party leader Justin Trudeau (51%, +5). Prime Minister and Conservative Party leader Stephen Harper has the lowest numbers (28%, -7).
May posts the best momentum score of all four main party leaders with +11 (20% of British Columbians say their opinion of her has improved since the campaign began, while 9% say it has worsened), while Mulcair is at +7, Trudeau at +1 and Harper at -45 (with 50% of residents saying their opinion of the incumbent prime minister has worsened).
When asked who would make the best Prime Minister of Canada, Mulcair is now in first place with 27%.”+5), followed by Trudeau with 20% (+1), Harper with 19% (-8) and May with 9% (+3).
The Conservative standing was also marred further as critics say that some of the 98 people appointed in June by the Conservative cabinet are being rewarded for their loyalty to the Conservative party.
Among those appointed to various boards, courts, tribunals and other federal bodies are:
Gary Meschishnick, president of the conservative-leaning Saskatchewan Party, named to his province’s superior court
Basil Stewart, a failed Progressive Conservative candidate from P.E.I., appointed to the board of the National Capital Commission, which is overseeing the controversial communism victims’ memorial
Brian Coburn, a former Ottawa-area P.C. cabinet minister, also appointed to the NCC
Denise Ghanam and Thomas Robert Porter, failed Tory candidates, named to the Windsor Port Authority
Ray Castelli, a prominent B.C. Conservative, reappointed Chairperson of the Canadian Commercial Corporation
Troy DeSouza, a failed Conservative candidate from Vancouver Island, appointed to the Military Police Complaints Commission
Guy Smith, a judicial adviser to Peter MacKay, named as a tax judge with a salary of $310,000.
NDP MP Pat Martin, meanwhile, called the choices “pure patronage pork” and said most Canadians are offended “by the idea that appointments are made not on qualifications but on who you know in the PMO (Prime Minister’s Office).”
Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau also blasted the appointments, labelling them “the kind of patronage politics that this government has become known for.”
