The Philippine government urged all sectors nationwide to brace for possible onslaught this year of what could be the strongest El Nino phenomenon in recorded history.
State weather agency Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) climatology chief Anthony Lucero said all sectors must prepare accordingly and use water wisely as latest available data indicate the “strong” drought-driving El Nino that’s already in progress in the tropical Pacific will likely further intensify to a new record high.
“The El Nino at present can possibly become stronger than this phenomenon’s strongest episode during the 1997-1998 period,” he warned Friday on the side of a forum in Metro Manila.
He said the conditions such as progressive increase in Pacific sea surface temperature indicated the scenario was most likely to occur this year.
A study published in the Philippine Journal of Development in 2009 cited the 1997-1998 El Nino as the strongest to affect the country during the 20th century.
They said such El Nino was worse than its 1982-1983 counterpart which caused an estimated USD 13 billion in global damages.
Philippine damage from the 1982-1983 El Nino reached some USD 450 million, they also said.
Whether this year’s “strong” El Nino will have the same impact as its 1997-1998 counterpart remains to be seen, said Lucero.
What happened during the 1997-1998 El Nino must be a gauge in preparing for what lies ahead, however, he noted.
Lucero expects El Nino to begin easing in early 2016. “El Nino could last until May or June next year,” he also said.
PAGASA forecast slightly warmer-than-average temperature during the September 2015-February 2016 El Nino-affected period. Slightly cooler-than-average temperature is possible in mountainous areas of Luzon, PAGASA also said.
Tropical cyclones (TCs) are still likely in the country despite El Nino, Lucero also pointed out.
He said PAGASA forecast two to four TCs this September, two to three TCs in October, one to two TCs in November and zero to one TC each in December as well as January and February 2016.
“Dry conditions will likely affect most parts of country starting September 2015,” he noted, however.
Areas likely to experience dry conditions next month are Metro Manila and Luzon’s Pangasinan, Bataan, Bulacan, Nueva Ecija, Pampanga, Tarlac, Cavite and Romblon provinces; the Visayas’ Capiz and Cebu provinces as well as Mindanao’s North Cotabato, PAGASA data show.
“Dry condition is defined as two consecutive months of below-normal rainfall condition or 21 percent to 50 percent reduction from average rainfall,” said PAGASA.
PAGASA also said provinces likely to experience dry spell this September are Batanes, Isabela, Camarines Sur, Masbate and Sorsogon all in Luzon; Eastern Samar, Leyte, Northern Samar, Samar and Southern Leyte in the Visayas as well as Mindanao’s Zamboanga del Norte, Misamis Occidental, Compostela Valley, South Cotabato, Sarangani, Sultan Kudarat, Agusan del Norte, Surigao del Sur, Basilan, Maguindanao and Sulu.
“Dry spell is defined as three consecutive months of below-normal rainfall condition or 21 percent to 60 percent reduction from average rainfall,” PAGASA said.
Provinces that can experience drought this September are Luzon’s Aurora, Laguna, Quezon, Camarines Norte and Catanduanes as well as the Visayas’ Bohol, PAGASA said. Catherine J. Teves
